Mantashe to forge ahead with nuclear power procurement

The department of mineral resources & energy plans to issue a request for proposals for 2,500MW worth of new nuclear energy projects.

This will be in addition to the 1,800MW Eskom hopes to secure by extending the life of Koeberg nuclear power station in Cape Town by 20 years.

However, Chris Yelland, energy analyst and MD of EE Business Intelligence, said it was unlikely the request for proposals would be issued in 2023.

Despite criticism for the likes of the Presidential Climate Commission that the cost of building new nuclear power stations could not be justified compared to lower-cost options such as renewable energy and gas, Gwede Mantashe, minister of mineral resources & energy, confirmed the state still intended to move forward with the procurement of nuclear power.

He said that as SA proceeds to add variable generation capacity from renewable sources the country would also require “a reliable baseload source” such as nuclear.

“We are going to issue a request for proposals for nuclear power. It will not be for 9,600MW, but for 2,500MW to be developed at a rate that the country can afford,” Mantashe said at the Minerals Council of SA’s AGM in Johannesburg on Wednesday.

He was referring to a bid by his predecessor in 2016, when then-minister of energy Tina Joemat-Pettersson made the decision to have the department acquire nuclear power to generate 9,600MW of electricity.

The deal with Russia to introduce six power plants, which would have cost SA R1.2-trillion, was later ruled invalid after being challenged by NGOs.

At the time, the state wanted to push ahead with the deal even after an advisory committee commissioned by Joemat-Pettersson to provide feedback on the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) of 2010 concluded that the most cost-effective option for SA’s energy future did not include the commissioning of new nuclear power plants.

Subsequently, the IRP 2019 did not include new nuclear power as part of the energy procurement plan up to 2030. The document states only that the department should commence preparations for a nuclear build programme to the extent of 2,500MW “at a pace and scale that the country can afford”.

Mantashe has issued a ministerial determination on the procurement of 2,500MW of new generation capacity from nuclear in 2021 which the National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) decided to concur with subject to certain suspensive conditions.

According to Yelland, these conditions said that the department would first have to establish the rationality behind 2,500MW capacity of nuclear power based on SA’s envisaged electricity landscape post-2030.

Nersa was basically saying, said Yelland, that the department needs to finalise the updated IRP before it could proceed with the procurement of new nuclear power.

“My interpretation is that there needs to be an updated IRP before new nuclear power can be procured.”

National Treasury would also first have to do a cost-benefit analysis to determine if this would be affordable for SA and that hasn’t been done yet either.

“A lot still needs to happen before the request for proposals can be issued and I don’t think it will be possible to conclude all the necessary processes before the end of the year.”

Also, he said, including nuclear power would not provide a guarantee such projects would necessarily be procured.

“Last time government issued a request for proposals for nuclear power was in 2008 and they even selected two preferred bidders. Then Treasury said SA could not afford the projects, so they were canned. Later, the procurement process for 9,600MW of nuclear power under the IRP 2010 started, but it never happened,” Yelland said.

He also questioned the need for, and appropriateness of, nuclear power in SA’s energy mix beyond 2030.

SA did not have the necessary skills or a construction environment that was conducive to building large new nuclear power stations, he said.

In addition, by 2035 SA’s energy mix is likely to include 65,000MW to 70,000MW of variable wind and solar power, and battery storage.

“The energy mix will be quite variable. What we will need is flexible generation that can be ramped up and down quickly [to augment supply from variable generation]. What we don’t need is steady nuclear power of such a minute quantity that it will be useless to SA.”

But independent energy specialist Lungile Mashele disagrees with Yelland, saying that nuclear offered high efficiencies and energy availability.