Ukraine prepares for reprisal

• Situation being ‘stabilised’ around Bakhmut, but Avdiivka is becoming ‘like a place from postapocalyptic movies’

Ukraine’s ground forces commander said on Monday Kyiv was planning its next move after Moscow shifted the focus of its offensive from a flagging assault on the eastern city of Bakhmut to another town further south, described as postapocalyptic.

The Ukrainian military aims to wear down Russian forces as much as possible before launching a counteroffensive in the coming weeks or months — seeking to end the invasion launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin 13 months ago.

Ukrainian ground forces commander Col-Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, who said last week that the counterattack could come “very soon”, visited frontline troops in the east on Monday and said his forces were still repelling Russian attacks on Bakhmut.

Defending the small city in the industrialised Donbas region that Russia has tried to seize for months was a “military necessity”, he said, praising Ukrainian resilience in “extremely difficult conditions”.

“We are calculating all possible options for the development of events, and will react adequately to the current situation.”

Commander-in-chief Gen Valery Zaluzhny said the situation was being “stabilised” around Bakhmut, where Russian forces say they are fighting street by street.

Last week, the Ukrainian military warned that Avdiivka, a smaller town 90km further south, could become a “second Bakhmut” as Russia turns its attention there. Both towns have been reduced to rubble in fighting that both sides have called a “meat grinder”.

“I am sad to say this, but Avdiivka is becoming more and more like a place from postapocalyptic movies,” said Vitaliy Barabash, head of the city’s military administration. Only about 2,000 of a prewar population of 30,000 remain and he urged them to leave.

A Ukrainian military video showed smoke billowing from ruined apartment blocks and dead soldiers on open ground and in trenches in Bakhmut.

Two people were killed and 29 wounded on Monday after Russian forces fired two S-300 missiles at the eastern city of Sloviansk northwest of Bakhmut, according to regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko. President Volodymyr Zelensky posted a video of smouldering debris and vowed “Ukraine will not forgive” such attacks. Moscow denies targeting civilians.

In Russia, the defence ministry said it downed a Ukrainian drone on Sunday. It said three people were injured and apartment blocks were damaged in the attack south of Moscow.

Kyiv does not generally comment on reports of attacks in Russia. The latest reported attack, on the town of Kireyevsk, in Tula region 220km south of Moscow, appeared to be one of the closest attacks yet to the Russian capital.

NUCLEAR

As the invasion Putin launched to “demilitarise” Ukraine has flagged, he and other top Russian officials have played up the prospect that the war could escalate to involve nuclear weapons. On Saturday, he said he had struck a deal to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighbouring Belarus.

The Belarus plan, while not unexpected, is one of Russia’s most pronounced nuclear signals yet and a warning to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) over its military support for Ukraine, which has called for a meeting of the UN Security Council in response.

“Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible,” said Nato spokesperson Oana Lungescu. “Nato is vigilant. We are closely monitoring the situation.

We have not seen any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture that would lead us to adjust our own.”

Putin likened his Belarus plan to the US stationing its weapons in Europe, insisting that Russia would not violate its nuclear nonproliferation promises.

However, Lungescu said Putin’s nonproliferation pledge and his description of US weapons deployment overseas are way off the mark.

“Russia’s reference to Nato’s nuclear sharing is totally misleading. Nato allies act with full respect of their international commitments,” she said. “Russia has consistently broken its arms control commitments.”

Ukraine security chief Oleksiy Danilov said Russia’s plan would destabilise Belarus, which he said has been taken “hostage” by Moscow.

Others condemning Putin’s plan include Lithuania, which said it will call for new sanctions against Moscow and Minsk. EU policy chief Josep Borrell urged Belarus not to host the weapons, and threatened more sanctions.

Belarus and Russia have close military ties. Minsk let Moscow use its territory as a staging post for the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year.

Experts see Russia’s move as significant as it had been proud, until now, of not having deployed nuclear weapons outside its borders, unlike the US. This may be the first time since the mid-1990s that it plans to do so.

The US has played down concern about Russia’s planned deployment.

“I can tell you we’ve seen nothing that would indicate Mr Putin is preparing to use tactical nuclear weapons in any way whatsoever in Ukraine,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told broadcaster CBC.

“And I can also tell you that we haven’t seen anything that would cause us to change our own strategic nuclear deterrent posture.”

Tactical nuclear weapons are those used to make specific gains on a battlefield, rather than those capable of wiping out cities. It is unclear how many such weapons Russia has, since the topic is still shrouded in Cold War secrecy.

Putin asserted on Sunday that Western powers are building a new “axis” similar to the partnership between Germany and Japan during World War 2, while denying Russia is building a military alliance with China.

That was the reprise of a theme that has figured in his portrayal of the war as Moscow’s fight against a Ukraine in the grip of supposed Nazis, abetted by Western powers menacing Russia. Ukraine rejects these as spurious pretexts for a war of imperial conquest.