Financial Mail and Business Day

Say goodbye to Black Friday

It’s going to be a blue Christmas in cybertown

December 1 2027

The last five years have seen a steady decline in annual supersales such as Singles Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Even extending them to a full week or the entire month of November hasn’t resuscitated consumers’ flagging interest in so-called megadeals of the year.

Online and offline retailers alike are perplexed. After decades of stellar growth, yearon-year sales volumes suddenly peaked in 2021, then slumped.

At first they blamed it on Covid-19, but even after the pandemic dissipated, there was no revival of retail fortunes. Something had changed.

When marathon sales blowouts such as Singles Day were a novelty, complete with livestreamed performances and celebrities, the deep discounts were real, and consumers were easy to convert from prospects to customers. Many were looking for the opportunity to get something they were hankering after at an affordable price. Some even delayed their purchase decisions until sales day, for exactly that reason.

Then cynical retailers started offering pre-Black Friday specials, muddying the waters and loading prices beforehand, just so they could offer bigger discounts on the day. Savvy consumers soon twigged to the fact that the specials weren’t really that special, and on big-ticket items they could often negotiate an even better deal on nonsales days. Tracking airline flights for the best day of the week to get the lowest fare is one example of how consumers turned online tech to their own advantage.

But the biggest reason Singles Day has stopped growing, and Black Friday and Cyber Monday are nonevents, is that people are no longer interested in retail promos, online or off. Direct

sales from brand to customer have taken over, and consumers are spending less anyway. So why wait for a special sale, when you already have almost everything you need, and if there’s something that needs replacing, you can get a customised product anytime?

As people swing away from buying gifts to spending time with other people, and spending money on experiences, it’s going to be a blue, blue Christmas in cybertown! Date published: December 2 2021

WHERE HAS ALL THE MONEY GONE? November 30 2030

It’s a different kind of Black Friday; one where instead of firms going from losses “into the black”, their mood is very black, and there’s no sunshine on the horizon. The writing is on the wall, the corporate joyride has come to an end.

How could this happen? For more than 40 years, we’ve seen a boom in technologically driven market success, brand loyalty, and corporate profits. The birth of the internet, online sales and marketing, and the unparallelled triumph of annual events such as Cyber Monday, Singles Day, and all the other megasales blowouts, made it look like the party was never going to end.

Like going bankrupt, it happened gradually, then suddenly. Gradually, more and more money was being “taken out of the system”, as middlemen were disintermediated, and consumers went directly to the source.

Who needs a travel agent or a used car dealer, when you can buy all that you need online? Who needs an electrician or a broker, when solar-powered lights and investment funds are right there, on your phone?

For a while, the tech and internet giants made a killing, as the default point of purchase shifted from convenience and location to connected and customised. It was easier to let Google or Alexa find the stuff you needed; most of the time, you didn’t need to search — they prompted you to buy!

Then suddenly, things were different. People stopped buying cars, TV screens and phones. Even “cheap” Chinese goods last a lifetime, and how many pairs of high-end sneakers can you actually wear? Luxury brands that thrived in the 2020s saw volumes and prices fall off a cliff. The idea of constant upgrades seems quaintly obsolete, and if you do need a replacement for a broken or lost item, it’s easy enough to order it from your local 3D print shop.

The age of mass manufacturing by industrial corporations is over, and assembly line robots have whirred to a standstill. Small and agile is the new style of commerce, and now consumers value personal experiences more than branded goods. That’s where the money has gone.

Date published: November 14 2019

THE BOTTOM LINE

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2021-12-07T08:00:00.0000000Z

2021-12-07T08:00:00.0000000Z

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