Omicron hope as SA hospitals cope

SA’s surge in Covid-19 cases after the emergence of the Omicron variant has not overwhelmed hospitals so far, prompting cautious optimism that the new strain may cause mostly mild illness.

Initial data from SA, the epicentre of the outbreak of the Omicron variant, is “a bit encouraging regarding the severity”, Anthony Fauci, US President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, said on Sunday.

At the same time, he cautioned that it is too early to be definitive.

Scientists and public health officials are scouring available data to try to predict Omicron’s effect as many questions about the new strain and its multiple mutations remain unanswered. The variant, now dominant in SA, has made its way across the world from Tokyo to Oslo since its discovery was announced on November 25.

The scramble for clarity has led to sometimes conflicting messages about how serious a threat Omicron is.

Moderna president Stephen Hoge said on Sunday there is a clear risk that existing vaccines will be less effective against Omicron, though it is too early to say by how much. But other vaccine developers expressed optimism last week that the shots may retain efficacy against severe illness.

While the early link between infections and hospitalisations may look encouraging, there also tends to be a time lag between the two occurrences. Severe symptoms in patients who have contracted earlier variants typically only develop one to three weeks after they are diagnosed, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in the US.

The seven-day moving average of daily new cases in SA rose to 10,055 last week, from less than 300 three weeks earlier.

Governments around the world, which had hoped for a return to normalcy after two years of pandemic struggle, responded to the new strain by swiftly clamping down on travel. The UK will require all travellers to take a test within 48 hours of their flight, regardless of their vaccination status. France has tightened testing requirements

for visitors from outside the EU. Germany’s Angela Merkel, in her last podcast as chancellor, pleaded with people to take the virus seriously and get vaccinated.

“There was almost a kneejerk response of countries, including the US, to block travel from countries in which there were recognisable cases of Omicron,” Fauci said on Monday at a separate event.

“That knee-jerk reaction was understandable, it had political and nationalistic aspects to it to protect your country, but you also have to take into consideration your responsibility not only to your country but to the rest of the world.”

Omicron has sparked concern that it could evade vaccineinduced protection and frustrate efforts to reopen economies because it shows 30 or more changes in the spike protein, which the virus uses to lever its way into cells. But several more weeks may elapse before laboratory testing and real-life studies begin to untangle exactly what the mutations mean.

In another encouraging sign, the Steve Biko and Tshwane District Hospital complex in Pretoria said most patients in the Covid-19 wards did not require oxygen. That marks a departure from previous waves.

Fauci said the Biden administration is re-evaluating the travel ban on eight Southern African countries as more information becomes available. New York City recorded three more cases of the mutation, which has popped up in at least 11 US states. Omicron cases linked to a corporate Christmas party in Oslo may rise to as many as 100, a Norwegian broadcaster reported at the weekend.